Media Bites-January 6 2010

I thought it would be fitting to offer some predictions and observations for the TV and entertainment business since its the start of a new year, mid season shows will launch and the Consumer Electronics Show starts in Las Vegas on Thursday. (and I'm here in the 20 degree weather-where is the justice!) so in no particular order here we go:

1. This will be the last season of 'American Idol'. With salaries getting a bit out of hand, Paula Abdul gone, Ellen DeGeneres as a judge and rumors flying about Simon Cowell's exit, ratings slipping year to year, it might be time to pack it in before they 'jump the shark'.

2. TV Everywhere will be launched despite the rantings of consumer advocacy groups. This product will make the buy once, play anywhere model much more viable. If I'm already paying for premium channels like HBO, Starz, Cinemax and Showtime, why should I be chained to my TV set to watch them? TV Everywhere affords the ability to view from a laptop, smart phone or other mobile device. Who knows, maybe someday there will be kiosks at the doctor's office to enter your code and watch while you wait. Certainly better than reading the same Ladies Home Journal from 2005.

3. Consumers will become much more savvy and diligent about their cable TV delivery. The recent FOX/Time Warner Cable retransmission issue left some customers shaking their heads and asking why is there an issue over $.30 difference per subscriber/per month. One viewer in California said: 'I would have dropped cable had the deal not been reached, gone somewhere else, paid whatever I had to to get what I needed'

FOX wanted $1.oo per, = roughly $5.1 million annually.TWC wanted $.70=$3.6 million annually ( In the Albany media market) Thats a $1.5 million difference in retransmission fees alone. See why FOX was fighting the battle.

4. The joint venture (as NBC is calling it) between NBCU and Comcast will bring the wrath of regulators and most likely advocacy groups who will shout monopoly. Comcast will be forced to sell of some of the NBC network stations in order to appease Washington.

5. Disney is working on a product that they will quickly bring to market that would let consumers buy a film or TV show, pay for it once and make it portable enough to watch anywhere and on whatever device they chose. Bob Chapek, President of distribution for Walt Disney Studios shares his opinion: 'Every device now is internet connected..I see it as plasma that flows from one to another. Any device that is not connected is at risk of being obsolete.'

6. Local TV news properties will continue along the same old path and watch ratings slide. Its not appointment news anymore when it is available on line 24/7. Why not make my favorite story accessible as a podcast or screencast that I can take with me and share??

7. Comedies will continue to have a rebirth. 'Two and a Half Men.',' How I Met Your Mother.' 'The Big Bang Theory', 'Cougar Town', 'Modern Family'. Well written, enjoyable to watch fare will continue to gain audiences.

8. Dare I say the beginning of the end for reality TV? Although, with the addition of 'Jersey Shore', 'Real World, D.C.', 'Tough Love', 'Frank's House', 'Big Family' and now I just read in Hollywood Reporter that Kate Gosselin is in talks for a dating show maybe the wheels aren't going to come off the bus-but we can hope right?? (see above-well scripted comedies will prevail)

9. Companies like Zillion TV and Epix will be able to fully launch and give consumers top tier movies to watch on laptops through HDTV and smart phones.

10. And last but not least, the jury is still out on 'Leno' on NBC. Seems like the show has been preforming in the 2-3 rating for A18-49. No great shakes and NBC declined to renew 'Southland', which would have given them an opportunity to build a strong night, since the peacock net doesn't have anything they can hang their hat on, aside from the aging 'Heroes'

What are your predictions for 2010? Will you watch more or less TV? Are you an 'Idol' fan or could care less? The Media Man would love to hear any and all opinions.